China's critical minerals offensive intensifies, CSIS urges Western action.

The global scramble for critical minerals is accelerating. A new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reveals a reality unsettling for the West: Chinese companies' overseas mining investments are far outpacing what Western countries can keep up with. Report author and critical minerals expert Gracelin Baskaran noted that in 2024, Chinese enterprises conducted over 10 overseas mining acquisition deals, each exceeding US$100 million, reaching the highest level in over a decade.

"Behind this trend is Beijing's long-term intention to lock in ownership of strategic minerals, which will shape the future industrial and geopolitical competition landscape," Baskaran wrote.

Tanzania's "Loss"

The report focuses on Tanzania's Ngualla rare earth project. Discovered by Peak Rare Earths in 2010, the project is one of the world's most significant undeveloped rare earth resources. Although U.S. private equity firm General Innovation Capital Partners attempted to bid at a higher price, China's Shenghe Resources Holding ultimately completed the acquisition for approximately US$158 million. Peak was delisted from the Australian Securities Exchange in October 2025, and ownership of Ngualla was formally transferred to Shenghe.

Baskaran pointed out that Chinese companies are willing to pay significant premiums for strategically important mineral assets. Such transactions not only mean acquiring mines but also locking in future supply and shrinking the pool of assets available to competing supply chains. Based on current ownership and off-take arrangements, by 2029, all of Tanzania's rare earth production will flow to China, making Beijing the absolute dominant player in this most important emerging source of rare earths globally.

Why the West Is Always on the Back Foot

The report argues that the West often takes a reactive stance in critical mineral investment opportunities. This is not due to a lack of will, but rather a lack of a comprehensive, real-time global registry of critical mineral assets, resulting in limited information about which projects are seeking capital or may become acquisition targets.

"In many cases, U.S. embassies or government agencies only learn of potential acquisitions when negotiations are deep or the deal is near completion. By then, Chinese buyers may have already secured exclusive agreements, completed due diligence, and arranged financing, leaving very little room for Western governments or companies to make competing offers," Baskaran wrote.

Additionally, domestic review agencies in the U.S. and Australia can block foreign acquisition of domestic assets, but they have no authority over overseas projects—meaning American or Australian companies holding assets abroad may see those assets become targets for Chinese companies.

CSIS's Four Strategic Recommendations

The report proposes four strategic actions that could help the West secure critical minerals:

1.1. Establish a central registry of critical mineral assets to increase project visibility; 2. Formalize early action mechanisms with allied trading partners to share information; 3. Enhance the capabilities of U.S. and allied global missions to improve strategic monitoring of mineral assets; 4. Establish rapid-response financing capacity to provide funding quickly when opportunities arise.

Baskaran emphasized that the West needs to approach critical mineral acquisitions in a "coordinated ecosystem" manner, similar to China, with the common goal of ensuring long-term control over critical minerals. As competition intensifies, the United States and its allies must "establish institutions that can identify and protect strategic assets before they change hands," otherwise they risk losing control over resources and supply chains.

Capital Flow Signals

This event sends a clear capital signal: global capital is accelerating its concentration in the critical minerals sector, especially rare earths, lithium, cobalt, and other resources needed for the energy transition. Through systematic deployment of state capital and state-owned enterprises, China is fully locking down the supply chain from resources to processing. If the West fails to adjust its strategy in time, it will face the risk of supply chain dependence on China for decades to come.

For investors, critical mineral assets in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia are becoming strategic battlegrounds. The Tanzania case shows that even projects in early stages can be snapped up by strategic buyers at a premium in a short time. This requires institutional investors to reassess the risks and returns of resource assets in emerging markets: geopolitical factors will become more important decision variables than traditional resource endowments and costs.

Does the CSIS report mean that global capital is reassessing the investment value of critical minerals in Africa? The answer is yes. The traditional development model of reliance is being replaced by state-led long-term locking strategies. In the next 10 years, capital will favor markets with clear resource control and political stability guarantees, while Western investors lacking strategic coordination capacity may continue to miss opportunities.